PJM finds generation capacity shortfall, points to new data centers

July 19, 2026

The largest grid in the U.S. continues to find electricity demand rising faster than new generation is being built. On Tuesday the PJM Interconnection, the body in charge of the grid from New Jersey to Virginia and west to Chicago, announced results from its capacity auction for the 2028 delivery year. For the third year in a row, capacity prices hit the administrative price cap at $325/MW-day. Without the cap, PJM estimates prices would have cleared at $554/MW-day. The price cap protects households and businesses from paying billions to existing generators when construction and interconnection timelines limit how fast new supply can come online. It also protects consumers from potentially overstated data center load forecasts. However, the cap reduces the incentive to build new power plants, batteries, or demand response in a region where capacity is urgently needed. Source: PJM.

Fuels in America, 1776–2026

July 5, 2026

Over the past 250 years, different fuels have powered the U.S. For the country’s first 100 years, burning wood allowed for home heating, cooking, blacksmithing, and clearing land for agriculture. Using wood as a fuel source was renewable, but not sustainable, and by the early 1900s around 30% of the country’s forests had been cleared. The mid-1800s saw the start of the coal age, which would power steam engines, factories, railroads, and eventually the electric grid. In the early to mid 1900s, the streets began to fill with automobiles, ushering in a shift from coal to oil for powering transportation. By the bicentennial, natural gas had surpassed coal as more homes and businesses used it for heating. Today, fossil fuels still account for 85% the primary energy mix, but new carbon-free sources have grown rapidly, with much of that growth in the past decade. Wind and solar now produce 3.3% of energy used in the United States, on top of the nuclear, hydro, and biofuel fleet that produces 12% of primary energy. Source: EIA.

Heat wave stresses European grid

June 28, 2026

Last week, high temperatures scorched Europe and put intense pressure on the region’s electrical grid. While demand rose from air conditioning and refrigeration needs, thermal power plants simultaneously became less efficient and wind energy output dropped due to the stalled high pressure system. In France, environmental regulations limit how warm rivers can become to protect wildlife and ecosystems. As river temperatures rose to 82 F, three nuclear plants needed to shut down to avoid increasing river temperatures further due to their water discharge. The closure of the nuclear plants led to a reduction of 4.8 GW of generation capacity during high demand hours, or 8% of the system’s peak load. Despite these simultaneous stresses, the European grid remained reliable. Source: Gridwatch.

Tale of two grids

June 21, 2026

Over the past 25 years, electricity generation has grown 16% in the United States, less than one percent per year. In China, by contrast, electricity generation has grown 653% over that same time frame. In the U.S., energy efficiency improvements and an economic shift from manufacturing to software and services has keep electrical demand largely flat. In stark contrast, China has driven the largest industrialization and urbanization boom in human history. Rapid growth in manufacturing, materials and chemicals production, and infrastructure have both necessitated and been facilitated by a massive expansion of the country’s electricity grid. As the U.S. enters a new era of load growth from electriciation and AI, it can learn key lessons from China around planning for growth, expanding transmission, and bolstering supply chains for grid equipment. Source: EIA.

SunZia

June 14, 2026

Earlier this month, the SunZia Wind and Transmission project began delivering massive amounts of wind energy from New Mexico into Arizona and California. At 3,650 MW, SunZia Wind is the largest wind project outside of China. A 550-mile high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission line carries this wind energy, stretching across New Mexico and Arizona. Developed by Pattern Energy, SunZia’s energization marks a two-decade effort and $11 billion investment that has faced various challenges. The transmission line faced opposition and legal action from several Native American tribes and environmental groups, particularly over portions of the transmission route through Arizona’s San Pedro Valley. Once it reaches Arizona, most of SunZia’s power flows into California through existing transmission networks. Various organizations have contracted for capacity on the line including California electricity providers, Shell plc, and the University of California, among others. Source: Pattern Energy.

Ages of infrastructure

May 31, 2026

The booms and busts of technologies on the grid tell stories about America’s industrial ambitions over more than a century. Coming out of the Great Depression, the New Deal created large hydroelectric projects like the Grand Coulee Dam, Hoover Dam, Bonneville Dam, and the Tennessee Valley Authority. The postwar era saw rapid growth in electricity demand needed to power factories and suburban appliances, leading to the first wave of coal and natural gas plants. Nuclear energy emerged during the Cold War amidst the wave of technological optimism that comes with trans-Atlantic flights and space programs. Ultimately, rising construction costs, environmental regulations, and inflation made the decade-long construction timeline of a new nuclear plant infeasible, challenges that still exist today. In the 1990s and 2000s, cheap domestic natural gas and more efficient combined-cycle plants reshaped the grid as many regions transitioned to deregulated electricity markets that rewarded their operational flexibility. Today, wind, solar, and batteries are the fastest-growing technologies on the grid. Originally catalyzed by federal and state policy, renewables and storage have advanced to become the cheapest source of new capacity on the grid. Source: EIA.

Champlain Hudson Power Express

May 24, 2026

After 16 years and $6 billion, the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) has begun bringing hydropower from Quebec directly into New York City. The 339-mile high voltage direct current (HVDC) line spends 192 miles underwater as it follows the Hudson River from Lake Champlain down to the northwest corner of Queens. The line can carry 1,250 MW of power, enough for about 1 million homes or 10% of the city’s peak electrical demand. While primarily an import line to NYC, CHPE’s developers built the line to operate bidirectionally. In the future this bidirectionality could allow excess offshore wind from New York to flow to Quebec, preserving water in Canada’s reservoirs like a natural battery. Source: TDI.

Spirit’s demise

May 10, 2026

Spirit Airlines, often called “the flying yellow bus,” ceased operations last weekend after 34 years of service as North America’s leading ultra-low cost carrier. Spirit experienced significant turbulence in recent years, including a failed Jet Blue merger in 2022, rising post-covid costs, and bankruptcies in both November 2024 and August 2025. The final blow for Spirit came from rising fuel prices due to the war in Iran. From February to March this year, airlines saw their fuel costs rise 56%. Fuel accounts for between 16% and 30% of an airline’s total costs, and Spirit’s already troubled financials could not absorb the increase. Source: A4A.

Hydropower in Brazil

May 3, 2026

Brazil has built one of the cleanest large scale power systems in the world, largely thanks to its massive system of dams and hydroelectric power plants. Abundant rainfall and large river networks allow the country to generate between 55% and 65% of its annual energy from hydro power. The Itaipu Dam, in the south of Brazil bordering Paraguay, is the largest hydroelectric power plant outside of China at 14,000 MW. In drought years, however, like in 2020-2021, the nation’s reliance on hydro can lead to energy shortages and higher prices due to the need to run backup fossil fuel plants. In addition to hydro, Brazil has also built out wind and solar resources to generate around 25% of its energy and its vast sugarcane production allows for 10% of its electricity to come from biofuels. Source: ONS.

Solar and wind sites across the U.S.

April 26, 2026

Solar accounted for more than half (51%) of new U.S. grid capacity additions in 2025, totaling 28.2 GW. Battery storage followed with 17.6 GW (31%), and wind ranked third at 5.5 GW (10%). Natural gas saw both retirements and new builds, resulting in a net addition of 4.2 GW (8%). Renewables, particularly solar and battery storage, now outpace all other generation sources because they are the cheapest, fastest, and most scalable ways to add capacity to the grid. The cost of solar panels, for example, has fallen by roughly 90% over the past 25 years. The deployment of renewables varies by region. Wind development is concentrated in the central U.S., particularly the Midwest, Oklahoma, and Texas, where winds are strongest. Solar is less geographically constrained and has seen growth in areas with flat, open land and good grid connectivity. Source: EIA.

Coal plant retirements largely pushed, cancelled in 2025

April 19, 2026

At the end of 2024, power plant operators were planning to retire over 8.5 GW of coal power in 2025. By the end of 2025, however, only 2.5 GW had retired, the lowest amount in the past 15 years. Most plants had thier retirement dates pushed back to 2026 or 2029, while some will continue running indefinitely. Coal power has seen a steady decline over the past two decades due to emissions rules and weakening economics. Recently plants are being kept online due to significant demand growth, grid reliability concerns, and supportive federal policy. Source: EIA.

Severe snow drought in the West

April 12, 2026

A warm winter combined with a heatwave in March has left the western US in a severe snow drought, with snowpack levels in the rockies hitting record low levels. Snowpack matters to the West because it stores and slowly releases water, ensuring the region has enough water into the summer. The snow drought may have a range of impacts over the next six months, including less irrigation for crops, higher wildfire risk, water restrictions, and higher water bills. Source: USDA NRCS.

Gasoline prices pass $4 per gallon

April 5, 2026

One month after the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran, the average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. has risen by $1.08 per gallon or over 35%. The conflict in Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing a spike in crude oil prices globally. The average U.S. household spends ~2% of their take-home pay on gasoline, a smaller share than housing at ~30% and food at ~10%. However gasoline prices are nonetheless a very visible expense, published on large billboards, and one that most people have limited control over. Furthermore, gasoline powers transportation, meaning the prices of food and most goods will increase as well. Indeed Bloomberg estimates month-over-month inflation in March will be 1%, six times higher than target. Source: EIA.

Data centers and their growth by region

March 29, 2026

Today the US has over 50 GW of data centers in-service, a figure that has tripled since 2020. For context, that amount of power is approximately equal to the entire state of California running at its peak electrical demand 24x7. From an emissions perspective, powering these data centers emits roughly as much carbon dioxide as 30 million gasoline cars in a typical year. Data centers cluster in locations with strong connections to the internet backbone. Major hotspots include Northern Virginia, Dallas, Silicon Valley, Chicago, Phoenix, and Atlanta. When a data center seeks to connect to the grid, the interconnecting utility and grid operator need to study how it will impact the system and what kinds of substation or transmission upgrades it may require. This study and interconnection process is a major bottleneck for data center developers. The Mid-Atlantic grid, PJM, currently has the most installed data center capacity at 15.9 GW. The Midwestern grid, MISO, has seen the fastest growth in data centers over the past six years, with a compound annual growth rate of 43%. Source: FERC.

Cuba’s energy crisis grows dire

March 22, 2026

On Monday March 16, Cuba’s national electrical grid collapsed leaving 10 million people without power for 29 hours. The island nation has experienced three major blackouts over the past four months, in part due to fuel shortages. Oil imports to Cuba from Venezuela halted in early January after the U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro. On January 29, Donand Trump set up a process to impose additional tariffs on any country providing oil to Cuba. In response to these trade pressures, Mexico, one of Cuba’s main oil suppliers, announced that they halted shipments of crude to the republic. Mexico continues to send food and basic necessities as humanitarian aid to the island. In recent days, U.S. Coast Guard vessels have escorted oil tankers in the Caribbean off their original paths towards Cuba. Widespread shortages of food, water, and fuel continue to deepen the humanitarian crisis on the island. Sources: Kpler, NYT.

Form Energy: A timeline

March 15, 2026

On February 24, Form Energy, a leading developer of long-duration storage, and Google announced plans to build the largest battery in the world by energy capacity. The 300 MW, 30 GWh battery will accompany Google’s planned data center in Pine Island, Minnesota. Form Energy uses an iron-air chemistry that undergoes “reversible rusting” and makes the batteries best suited for long durations (~100 hours). In contrast, Lithium-ion batteries on the grid today are designed to fully discharge in one to four hours. Long duration storage technologies enable grids to incorporate large amounts of renewables. If wind and solar output drop for multiple days, long duration storage can bridge that gap. Site: Form Energy.

New England Clean Energy Connect

March 8, 2026

On January 16, 2026, after years of slowdowns, one of the most controversial transmission lines in recent U.S. history began delivering power into the New England grid. Permitting for the New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC) began in 2017 and drew significant attention from communities in Maine. While most of the 143-mile route followed existing transmission corridors, 53 miles required a new corridor through largely undeveloped forest in western Maine. In 2021, Maine voters passed a referendum to stop the project citing environmental disruptions and visual impacts. Courts later ruled that the referendum could not retroactively cancel permits and construction on the project continued. NECEC brings 1,200 MW of hydro and wind power from Canada into the 345 kV backbone of New England’s grid, largely to serve demand in Massachusetts. NECEC will supply between 10% and 20% of Massachusetts’s energy needs with firm, carbon-free electricity. Site: NECEC.

Strait of Hormuz

March 1, 2026

Each day, one quarter of the world's seaborne oil and one fifth of the world's liquified natural gas exports move through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea channel separating Persian Gulf countries from the rest of the world. Iran controls the northern side of the strait and could disrupt or block transit through the waterway. A cutoff of oil and gas trade through the Strait of Hormuz could result in global price spikes. While control of the channel offers Iran economic leverage, disrupting trade risks losing the support of allies, including China. Sources: EIA, NYT.

EV adoption slows by one-third

February 22, 2026

Since the expiration of the $7,500 New Clean Vehicle Credit last September, sales of battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles have dropped by roughly one-third of their former levels. Hybrid vehicles, which did not receive the credit, remained unaffected and are now sold at over twice the rate as battery EVs. The loss of federal incentives will test the maturity of the EV market and slow the shift towards an electrified, emissions free transportation sector. Source: Argonne National Laboratory.

Rising electricity demand from U.S. manufacturers

February 14, 2026

The ongoing age of electrification has four main drivers: buildings with electric space and water heaters, electric vehicles, data centers, and the electrification of industrial processes. Since 2021, multiple government incentive programs in the U.S. have spurred massive construction spending by domestic manufacturers. Analysis by ICF International forecasts industrial consumption will increase peak power demand in America by 25 GW over the next five years, akin to adding the entire electrical load of New England. Data source: FRED.

Next-generation geothermal’s rapid growth

February 7, 2026

Investment in next generation geothermal has grown by 70% or more each year since 2020. Two prominent technologies have made the largest advancements over the past few years: closed-loop geothermal and enhanced geothermal. Unlike traditional geothermal which needs to tap into an underground water source, closed-loop geothermal circulates fluid through a fully sealed loop and just needs hot rock. Enhanced geothermal systems on the other hand borrow techniques from the oil and gas industry of directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to create an artificial geothermal reservoir in any location with underground heat. In December 2025, Fervo Energy, one of the industry's leading enhanced geothermal companies, closed a $462 million Series E funding round. Source: IEA.

Rising electricity rates

January 31, 2026

Residential electricity rates in the U.S. are approximately 20% higher than they would have been if they had simply tracked inflation over the past 25 years. In recent years, electricity bills have become a hot-button political issue, playing a central role in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election last November and likely to be a core concern for voters nationwide leading up to midterm elections this year. The exact drivers of rate increases are hotly debated and not clear cut. Analysts and researchers point to a confluence of factors which they claim have and will continue to drive up electricity costs. These factors include investments in the transmission and distribution system, including hardening against storms and wildfires, rising electricity demand across the economy, state-led renewable portfolio standards, and aging grid infrastructure needing replacement. Data source: FRED.

PJM raises their long-term load forecast (again)

January 18, 2026

On January 14, PJM Interconnection released their 2026 Load Forecast Report, raising their peak load expectations in 2034 onward compared to last year's forecast. The grid operator, which serves 67 million customers in the Mid-Atlantic region, is home to the largest concentration of data centers in the world. As electricity bills in the region continue to rise, many point fingers at data centers for driving up demand and costs. On January 15, Chris Wright and Doug Burgum, on behalf of the White House Energy Dominance Council, along with the governors of all 13 states in the PJM footprint, signed a letter urging PJM to host a one-time emergency auction to procure new capacity resources. The letter calls for the costs of this auction to be allocated to new data centers that have not procured their own new capacity. Source: PJM.

China’s critical mineral dominance

January 11, 2026

China has an iron grip on the world’s supply of critical minerals, giving Beijing geopolitical leverage over essential industries like energy, technology, and defense. While China may not lead the world in mining, the country controls a majority of the refining and processing of these materials. For example, China refines lithium mined in Australia and Chile and Chinese firms own and finance many cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Modern energy technologies rely heavily on these minerals, including wind turbines and EV motors which use rare earths, electricity grids which use copper and aluminum, and various battery technologies which use lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite. Source: IEA.

Proven Oil Reserves

January 4, 2026

The world has approximately 1.7 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves, known deposits that can be extracted with today’s technologies. However, these reserves are largely concentrated in just a handful of countries. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves of any country in the world, with over 300 billion barrels. Oil deposits in Venezuela account for more than 16% of the world’s proven share, roughly equal to the total proven reserves in the U.S., Canada, and Russia combined. However, political and economic instability, sanctions, and the need for advanced technology to extract the extra-heavy form of crude found in Venezuela have made oil production in the country unreliable. Indeed, in recent years Venezuela has fallen to become the 18th largest oil producer globally, despite its ample reserves. Data Source: EIA.

Power consumption around the world

December 28, 2025

Across countries, higher GDP per capita generally correlates with higher electricity consumption per capita. Wealthier countries tend to use more electricity for manufacturing, services, transport, and heating/cooling. However, some countries diverge from the trend. High-income, service-oriented economies like Luxembourg or Switzerland use less electricity per capita than more industrial economies like Kuwait or Norway. Electricity consumption is also widely skewed: on a per-capita basis, Iceland uses 3,500 times as much electricity as Chad. Data Source: World Bank.

Trump's war on offshore wind

December 21, 2025

The Northeast has some of the best offshore wind resources in the nation. However, permitting challenges, local opposition, and rising costs have all confounded developers over the past two decades. On top of all of these challenges, Trump 2.0 has done his best to torpedo all offshore wind development over the past year. On Trump's first day in office this term, he signed an executive order to halt new federal approvals for wind power projects. The administration went on to issue stop-work orders for the Empire Wind and Revolution Wind projects, though both orders were removed after state officials and a federal judge intervened. Through the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, the federal government has revoked multiple permits, stalling projects such as SouthCoast Wind and New England Wind. Many other projects—already struggling economically due to inflation, higher interest rates, and cost overruns—have halted work or pulled out of agreements due to these new political risks. With the repeal of federal tax credits and tariffs of turbine components, projects are struggling to pencil and thousands of megawatts have been cancelled. Sources: Company websites.

Winter risk is coming

December 7, 2025

Electricity demand in New England has been flat for the past 20 years, and peak demand in summer has been approximately 25% higher than in winter. However, New England’s grid operator forecasts winter peak demand to double over the next two decades, rising from 20 GW today to 40 GW in 2045. The major driver of this load growth is the electrification of transportation and heating. ISO-NE expects 70% of homes in the region (4.4 million) to use electric space heating by 2050. Winter blackouts are generally more dangerous than summer outages because homes can lose heat in a matter of hours, creating the risk of frozen pipes and even hypothermia. Source: ISO-NE.

The Shadow Fleet

November 30, 2025

Around the world, a large collection of ships evade regulatory oversight to move sanctioned oil. Often registered under shell companies to hide their true owners, these shadow fleet tankers mask their activities by manipulating Automatic Identification Systems and disguising cargo origins with ship-to-ship transfers. Previously made up largely of vessels carrying Iranian and Venezuelan oil, the shadow fleet has more than doubled in recent years as it now transports cargo from the world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia. In 2022, G7 countries created a price cap on Russian oil to stifle the Kremlin's largest source of income. To bypass sanctions, Russia bought oil tankers and re-routed trade to China and India, building a shadow fleet of more than 500 tankers. In addition to economic and political impacts, the shadow fleet creates severe environmental risks. Many of these vessels are aging, uninsured, and poorly maintained. They routinely pass through sensitive marine ecosystems where an oil spill would cause catastrophic damage. Source: S&P Global.

California's pelican curve

November 23, 2025

In 2013, the California Independent System Operator published a chart of net load—the total load on the system minus wind and solar generation. During the day, solar power floods the grid leading to a dip in net load. In the evening net load rises sharply as the sun sets and demand increases. Ten years ago, CAISO noticed that the net load curve resembled the profile of a duck, with a dipping belly and rising neck. Today, abundant solar generation in California has made the duck more closely resemble a pelican. On November 8, 2025 for example, between 9:30 am and 1:00 pm renewables produced more energy than consumers in the state demanded. While the pelican curve shows a solar success story, it also creates significant challenges for CAISO system operators. The system needs batteries and thermal generators to ramp up by over 20,000 megawatts—roughly equivalent to turning on 20 nuclear reactors—in a two-hour period. Source: CAISO.

New York City’s power concerns

November 16, 2025

The nation’s largest city could face electricity shortfalls as demand grows and aging gas turbines retire, according to a recent report by New York’s grid operator. To close future supply gaps, NYC is relying on multiple major projects, including the 1,250 MW Champlain Hudson Power Express transmission line (expected spring 2026), the 800 MW Empire Wind 1 project (2027), and the Propel NY Energy transmission project (2030). However, supply chain uncertainty and political risks could delay these timelines. Even with these projects delivering power on schedule, NYISO still identifies a risk of power deficiency in the city starting in summer 2029. A temporary solution indicated in NYISO’s report is retaining aging peakers under special reliability exceptions. However, current state emissions regulations regardless of these reliability exemptions require many of these facilities to retire by May 1, 2029 unless they are upgraded to use cleaner technology. Source: NYISO.

The changing role of batteries on the grid

November 9, 2025

In September 2020, the U.S. had 1.4 GW of batteries connected to the grid. Five years later, that number has grown to 37.1 GW. For comparison, the entire country of Spain draws about 37 GW on a hot summer day. Over two-thirds of the nation’s battery capacity is in California and Texas, with 38% and 30% respectively. As battery installations grew over the past five years, battery owners have changed how they operate them. In Texas, batteries can earn revenue in two ways: providing grid services or trading energy. (In other electricity markets batteries can also make money by providing capacity or resource adequacy.) As battery capacity grew in Texas, their participation saturated the smaller ancillary service markets. This market saturation has pushed battery operators to participate in day-ahead and real-time energy markets, charging with cheap solar power and discharging to supply higher demand in the evening. In fact, by the start of 2025 batteries made more money from energy arbitrage than ancillary services. Data source: ERCOT via Modo Energy.

China outpaces the world on new nuclear power

November 2, 2025

Around the world, there are 65 nuclear power plants under construction today. 33 of them are in China, totalling 37.9 GW of capacity or enough power for approximately 30 million homes. China is building nuclear plants for a few reasons. Firstly, China seeks to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels—which they import mostly from the Middle East and Russia—to protect their energy supply from disruption by geopolitical conflicts or trade tensions. Secondly, nuclear projects match Beijing’s ambitions to dominate high-tech sectors and advance the country’s industrial capabilities. Unlike China, the U.S. and E.U. have zero nuclear plants under construction today. The latest U.S. facility, Plant Vogtle in Georgia, came online seven years behind schedule and $17 billion over budget. High costs, complex regulations, and long construction times make nuclear unappealing in the U.S. and Europe, particularly compared to cheap gas and renewables. Data source: World Nuclear Association.

Sunsetting bad incentives

October 26, 2025

In April 2023, the California Public Utilities Commission changed the state’s net-metering policy for rooftop solar. Prior to the change, every kilowatt-hour (kWh) generated by a customer’s solar panels reduced what they would pay their utility by one kWh. In effect, instead of buying power at the wholesale rate (roughly 2 to 6 cents per kWh), utilities were buying power from their customers at the full residential rate (33 cents per kWh). Utilities need to charge this higher rate to cover their transmission and distribution costs, including fixed costs such as grid hardening for wildfires. The former net-metering policies shift an estimated $6.5 billion per year onto households without solar panels. The new policy, often called Net Energy Metering 3.0, aimed to reduce this cost shift. When first implemented, applications for rooftop solar dropped and the share of homes installing batteries alongside solar panels rose significantly. While rooftop solar is still critically important, we need incentives for the technology to accurately reflect the value it provides to the electricity system. Data source: California Energy Commission.

What’s driving up your electricity bill?

October 19, 2025

A recent regression analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab studied the factors that have increased U.S. electricity rates over the past five years. Rates have gone up in regions with rooftop solar installments, declining system load, or state-led Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). However, the largest driver of higher bills is simply living in California, as wildfire damage and grid hardening efforts have created significant transmission and distribution costs for ratepayers in the state. Notably, utility-scale wind and solar buildout, outside of the 25% attributable to RPS policies, has not exerted upward pressure on prices. Full study: LBNL.

P.S. In next week's graph we'll take a look at how rooftop solar policies can be improved to avoid regressive cost shifts.

The road to low-carbon heavy transport

October 12, 2025

In 2024, Delta Airlines had a 7.6% pre-tax profit margin; 17% of their company spending was fuel, almost all of which was fossil-derived (point B). Switching to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF, point G) as priced now, not factoring in subsidies, would make them unprofitable. Experts say we need breakthrough technology companies to decarbonize these industries, and those companies need subsidies to get to scale. The U.S. has several useful subsidies: Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS) under the renewable fuel standard (RFS); the lower carbon fuel standard (LCFS) present in California and other west-coast states; 45Z (clean fuels federal tax credit); and 45Q (a highly bipartisan carbon capture tax credit). The Trump administration has published plans to continue to expand the Renewable Volumes Obligations (RVOs) which dictate the amount of biofuel big oil companies must subsidize under the RFS.

Oil and gas employment sinks after two years of hiring

October 5, 2025

U.S. oil and gas companies have reduced their workforce by over 3% since the start of 2025. Continued output hikes by OPEC+, paired with lukewarm demand from the world’s largest economies, have weakened oil prices. Crude prices have fallen to $60.53 per barrel, down from the year's high of $78.71 in January. With tighter margins, oil majors such as Chevron and ExxonMobil are cutting headcount to contain costs. In an extreme move, upstream company ConocoPhillips announced plans in September to lay off 20–25% of its global workforce, with some employees receiving layoff notifications earlier this week. Source: ​Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Windy days in Germany push prices negative

September 28, 2025

For twelve hours on September 16, day-ahead electricity prices in Germany dropped below zero. Strong winds along the country’s coast and mountain regions, as well as ample solar energy during the day, created more supply of electricity than the country needed. With a surplus of energy, suppliers need to pay buyers to take it. Generators continue to produce when prices are negative for two main reasons. Thermal generators often have start-up and shut-down costs making it expensive and time consuming to turn off. Wind and solar can be curtailed, but the government subsides they receive for producing energy outweigh the negative prices. Source: Energy Charts.

Puerto Rico see 10x more power outages than the states

September 21, 2025

Over the past four years, residents in Puerto Rico went without power for 81 hours on average. If we exclude major events such as hurricane Fiona in 2022 and hurricane Ernesto in 2024, residents saw 28 hours of interruption on average. By contrast, the yearly outages for customers in the 50 states total to seven hours, and without major events this number drops to two hours. Aging infrastructure and decades from underinvestment from Puerto Rico’s financially challenged utility created an unreliable electricity system on the island. Severe weather events with inadequate repairs have also compromised the system. While Puerto Rico’s government has taken legislative steps to improve reliability, significant investment is still needed. Data source: EIA.

Crypto’s curtailment

September 14, 2025

Cryptocurrency mining in Texas accounts for roughly 5% of the state’s electricity demand. On summer evenings however, when the grid faces the most strain, these facilities often shut off. This graph overlays the energy demand from cryptocurrency mining during each day in June and July this year. On around 40% of evenings, when wholesale prices are highest, facilities reduce their load by 90-95%. Electricity costs make or break the profitability of a crypto mine. By curtailing operations, crypto miners not only save money on energy charges (MWh), but also can greatly reduce demand charges (MW). Transmission utilities levy demand charges using ERCOT’s Four Coincident Peak (4CP) methodology. They charge industrial customers based on their load during four system-wide peaks, the highest aggregate demand in June, July, August, and September. By predicting when these peaks might occur, and cutting off power during them, crypto miners can sink their next year’s demand charges to near $0, saving 10-20% on annual energy costs. Source: ERCOT.

Commonwealth Fusion Systems: A timeline

September 7, 2025

MIT spin-off Commonwealth Fusion Systems plans to harness the power of stars on earth. While they haven’t fused any atoms yet, they have harnessed pocketbooks. CFS has already raised nearly $3 billion to date, accounting for one-third of all capital invested in nuclear fusion. In the end of June 2025, Google signed the first fusion power purchase agreement for 200 MW of CFS’s planned 400 MW ARC reactor in Chesterfield County, Virginia. CFS plans to begin operating ARC in the early 2030s. Before electrons will flow to the grid, however, CFS must first demonstrate that their systems can generate a self-sustaining, net-positive energy fusion reaction. The company hopes to do so in 2027 using their SPARC demonstration reactor, currently under construction in Devens, Massachusetts. Source: CFS.

Global oil glut tamps downs prices at the pump

August 31, 2025

From January 2022 through July 2025, the price of goods in the U.S. increased by 14.6% as measured by the core consumer price index. Over the same period, the nationwide average price of gasoline fell by 4.1%. Gasoline prices are much more volatile than inflation and driven in large part by global supply and demand of crude oil. Lower prices in recent months are partly due to OPEC+ output hikes, including the coalition’s announcement that they will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September 2025. Simultaneously, sluggish economic activity, particularly in Europe and China, has led the IEA to downgrade their estimate of global oil demand multiple times this year. Data sources: EIA and FRED.

Cooking fuels around the world

August 24, 2025

Cooking practices around the world have a significant impact on indoor air pollution and human health. In 1990, around half of the world’s population relied of dirty fuels, including charcoal, kerosene, coal, and biomass (wood, dung, crop residue). While that fraction has decreased, today over 2 billion people still rely on unsafe cooking methods, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and developing Asia. The International Energy Agency attributes 3.7 million premature deaths each year to household air pollution, mostly from cooking smoke. Data source: WHO.

600 million people in Africa lack electricity access

August 17, 2025

Over 40% of Africa’s population, roughly 600 million people on the continent, have no connection to electricity. Access to electricity can facilitate education and economic growth through better technologies and connectivity. It is important for health and safety by powering devices like water pumps and purifiers, clean cooking appliances, and safe lighting. In an effort to expand electricity access, the World Bank and the African Development Bank are spearheading Mission 300, a collaboration between governments and the private sector to get 300 million more people in Africa connected to power by 2030. Data source: World Bank.

Fewer wildfires, bigger burns

August 10, 2025

Over the past forty years, the number of wildfires in the U.S. has declined slightly, while the number of acres burned each year has risen. From 1985 to 1995, fires burned an average of 3.0 million acres per year. From 2012 to 2022, that average jumped to 7.2 million acres per year. Warmer temperatures have dried vegetation leading to longer fire seasons and larger burns. The strength of fires has increased despite additional suppression efforts: In the 1990s, the federal government spent $453 million per year on firefighting efforts. In the 2010s that spending rose to an average of $1.91 billion per year, a 2.5x increase (inflation adjusted). Data source: nifc.gov.

DOE cancels $4.9 billion loan for transmission line

August 3, 2025

On July 23, the Department of Energy terminated a $4.9 billion conditional commitment to Invenergy's Grain Belt Express transmission line. The planned 804-mile, direct current line is designed to carry wind energy from Kansas to load centers in the East. Interregional transmission lines like the Grain Belt Express can help the country interconnect more clean resources and meet rising electricity demand. The loan cancellation comes after politicians including Missouri Senator Josh Hawley pushed back against the project, claiming the funding was rushed out the door by the Biden administration. Source: Invenergy.

PJM capacity auction hits price cap

July 27, 2025

To ensure its system has adequate resources to meet demand in future years, a grid operator typically administers a competitive capacity market. Last year, capacity prices in PJM spiked from $28.92/MW-day to $269.92/MW-day. The 9x increase came from a combination of rising data center load growth, generator retirements, and changes to PJM’s capacity accreditation methods. In part responding to a complaint by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, PJM and FERC approved a two year “price collar” in the capacity market. This year, prices rose again and hit the price cap at $329.17. The price collar reduces volatility and protects consumers from cost spikes. However, it also distorts market signals in a region where supply is already falling behind rising demand. Source: PJM.

Demand response helps Mid-Atlantic grid weather heatwave

July 20, 2025

During the heatwave in June, the Mid-Atlantic power grid hit its third highest peak demand of all time. To keep electricity flowing to 67 million people, the grid operator called on contracted demand response resources. By participating in demand response, industrial, commercial, and residential customers receive payments for reducing their consumption during peak hours. Economic demand response occurs when electricity prices cross thresholds agreed upon with customers. Load management demand response occurs when the grid operator calls on contracted resources during an emergency. In the evening of June 24, demand response contributed 4.3 gigawatts of power to the system, roughly equal to adding four nuclear reactors. Data Source: PJM.

Federal budget law cuts short support for wind, solar, and EVs

July 13, 2025

On July 4, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law, bringing an earlier end to tax credits for wind, solar, and EVs. In 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act expanded federal support for advanced energy technologies, including a $7,500 credit for electric vehicles and larger investment and production tax credits for renewables. The new Act ends the EV credit at the end of September 2025, seven years before the previous deadline. Additionally, for new wind and solar plants to qualify for the investment tax credit or production tax credit, their construction must begin before July 4, 2026, or they must enter into service before the end of 2027. The new Act did spare some clean energy technologies, leaving support for energy storage and clean baseload power (including geothermal and nuclear) unchanged from the existing timeline. Source: L&W.

Electricity rates by state

July 6, 2025

In March 2025, the average residential rate for electricity across the nation was 17.11 cents per kilowatt-hour. However, households in different regions paid different rates: Idaho residents paid an average of 11.56 cents/kWh, while those in Connecticut paid 32.55 cents/kWh—nearly three times as much. The retail rate reflects the cost of generation, transmission, and distribution, each of which is impacted by different factors. For example, California’s wildfire mitigation and grid hardening efforts raise the costs of transmission and distribution. In states with higher wages, taxes, or clean energy standards, utilities may charge higher rates to cover related costs as well. Data source: EIA.

Tech’s nuclear power plays

June 29, 2025

Tech giants have a growing hunger for electricity to power their AI and cloud computing data centers. At the same time, Google, Microsoft, and Meta aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2030. To secure one source of continuous, carbon-free power, they have made large deals with nuclear energy companies. With multi-decade agreements, tech companies have revitalized economically troubled plants such as Three Mile Island. They have also invested billions of dollars into small modular reactors (SMRs), a new generation of fission reactors with the potential to be cheaper and easier to build. Most SMRs however are not expected to come online for another decade. If executed, these eight projects above will total to over 15,000 MW, enough power for roughly 12 million homes yet only a fraction of forecasted data center demand in the coming decades. Data sources: Company press releases.

Global surface temperature

June 22, 2025

The past ten years have been the ten hottest years on record. In 2024, the average global surface temperature was 2.79 °F (1.55 °C) above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). Over the past decade, greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have reached concentrations in the atmosphere unmatched in hundreds of thousands of years, trapping in heat. Data source: 2 Degrees Institute. (Temperatures before 1880 are estimated using ice cores and ocean sediments.)

Swapping out coal for natural gas

June 15, 2025

In 2004, the U.S. generated 53% of its electricity from coal-fired power plants and 19% from natural gas plants. In 2024, coal’s share of production has dropped to 15% while the share from natural gas has risen to 43%. Since the start of the “shale revolution” in the early 2000s, natural gas has fallen in price and forced coal plants to close largely for economic reasons. In addition to using cheaper fuel, natural gas plants are more flexible and emit less CO2 than coal plants. Lower gas prices have limited the growth of nuclear energy as well and forced some reactors to close. Of any technology, wind and solar have grown the most over the past two decades, rising in their share of electricity production from less than 1% to over 17%. Data source: EIA.

Solar growth and curtailment in the Golden State

June 8, 2025

California continues to rapidly grow its utility-scale solar capacity. Total solar generation in the state increased by 47% from 2021 to 2024. Sometimes during the day, solar production exceeds the amount that the current transmission system can support, requiring the grid operator to shut off some of the supply. Most of this curtailment occurs during the spring, when there is ample sun but lower demand due to moderate temperatures. In March 2025, for example, the California ISO shut off 18% of total solar generation for the month. To reduce curtailment, California is expanding its transmission infrastructure and promoting additional flexible resources such as batteries. Data source: CAISO via Grid Status.

Electric vehicle adoption around the world

June 1, 2025

Global electric vehicle sales continue to grow, with more than one EV for every five cars sold in 2024. Last year, EVs accounted for 10% of car sales in the United States, 22% in Europe, and 48% in China. Norway leads the world in EV adoption, with 89% of all new cars being fully battery powered. The Scandinavian country has significant government incentives for EVs and has built an extensive charging network. Domestically, Norway is moving towards its climate goals, with an electricity grid powered by 97% renewables. However, oil and gas account for two-thirds of the country’s exports. Data source: IEA.

Mapping battery storage buildout

May 25, 2025

Over the past five years, utility-scale lithium-ion battery capacity in the U.S. has grown from 1.0 GW in January 2020 to 28.5 GW in March 2025. By the end of 2025, an additional 18.2 GW is planned to come online, as shown in orange. California leads the charge with 12.1 GW installed, followed by Texas with 7.9 GW and Arizona with 2.5 GW. Together, these three states account for 79% of the nation's battery capacity. Each battery can supply its maximum power for a set duration, which typically falls between 1 and 4 hours. Data source: EIA.

A new era of electricity demand growth

May 18, 2025

Grid operators across the country expect an increase in annual peak demand, the highest electricity load over any hour in a given year, for the first time in two decades. The electrification of industries, homes, and transportation as well as new data centers are driving up forecasts of demand. Texas, with a growing economy and population, expects peak load to rise from 85 GW in 2024 to 154 GW in 2035, an 80% increase. In the Mid-Atlantic region, PJM, the operator of the nation's largest grid, anticipates a 38% rise in peak power demand this decade, from 151 GW to 209 GW. The New England system operator expects winter peak demand in the region to grow from 20 GW to 28 GW by 2035, largely due to the electrification of heating and transportation. Data sources: ERCOT, PJM, and ISO-NE.

E.U. continues to cut flows of Russian gas

May 11, 2025

In the three years since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, countries in the European Union have reduced their combined imports of Russian natural gas by 75%. The decrease has been partially offset by a tripling in U.S. liquefied natural gas imports since the start of 2022. Overall gas imports to Europe have fallen 19% in this three-year period. This decline is in part due to a reduction in consumption by industries in response to record high prices as well as a continued shift to renewables and energy efficiency. On May 5, 2025, the European Commission shared plans to stop all imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027. Data source: Bruegel.

California's changing resource mix

May 4, 2025

Snapshots of California's generation mix on May 1, 2020 and May 1, 2025. Over the past five years, solar has expanded its share, while electricity imports from other western states have declined. Batteries, shown in purple, have become a significant part of the mix in recent years. At 8 pm on May 1, 2025, for example, batteries were supplying 34% of the state's electricity. Data source: California ISO via Grid Status.